bruce beach

On both sides of the pond
the deck chairs are being rearranged
on board the Titanic.

Blair and Bush -
are making sure that all the chairs
are filled with people
that completely agree with their policies.

Their feeling is
that when one is about to go into battle -
that is not the time for dissent.

News of the moment -
is that Iran has sent
through the Swiss Embassy in Iran
a letter to the White House -
supposedly proposing a solution.

Bush is watching his box.
The postman has put nothing in it yet.
Not likely that Bush will RSVP
to the invitation -
but who knows.

Big meeting supposed to go on tomorrow -
between the UN Security Council Members.
China and Russia have already said -
they don't like the US proposal.
Not likely that is going anywhere -
but it will take awhile to get there -
that is to say -
nowhere.

A reader has researched out for me
that the SA-15 GAUNTLET (Tor M-1, 9M330)
has a max weight of 34,000 kilograms

34,000 kilograms = 37.4785846 short tons

ergo:

Since the Russian
Antonov An-124 cargo plane
can carry a payload of 150 tons
theoretically it can carry
4 of the TORs at a time
IF they will physically fit in -
(something which I have only speculated on -
and upon which I have no definite information -
although they seem to be have been designed
with that profile).

If that it is true -
then it would require only 7 planes
or 7 flights by one plane
to deliver the whole new Iranian contingent
of 29 (minus one).

Each TOR carries 8 missiles -
but I have seen no indication
of the total number of missiles
which Russia is supposed to be supplying
for reloading.

TORs detection, aim, launch,
and tracking capabilities
are quite amazing.
You would need to read them for yourself.
I have given you this link before.

http://www.defense-update.com/products/t/tor.htm

I have also read in some detail
US strategic and tactical defense plans
against them.
All I can say is -
these in themselves would be quite a battle -
the likes of which
has never been conducted for real -
in the present history of planet earth.

--------
Regarding the Israeli satellite imaging -
I should have written 70cm instead of 70mm -
but the relative examples
of physical sizes that I gave
were correct.
A little bigger than a bread box -
compared to the size of the TOR.
-------

The Russian command has stated
that they will deliver the TORs
but that they won't man them.

They may say that now -
but in the past -
(as with US practice in other countries)
they usually send along
advisors
consultants
trainers
and 'demonstration' personnel.
Who will know?

I am sure that if you asked
10 of your friends and neighbours -
what they know about the Tor-M1,
you would find they know nothing about it -
so you may consider yourself -
way over informed.

Nevertheless,
the following is the time-line
of information
that I have been following:

---------
By March 1999,
fifteen Shahab-3 missiles would have been produced domestically by Iran
based on the Defense Ministers comments ... Reuters, on September 19, 1999
noted that Tehran "struts missile Zelzal which took 4.5 years to develop."

---------------

Feb. 20, 2000
According to Jane's Defence Weekly,
"Iran on Feb. 20, 2000 carried out an operational test on a Shahab-3
missile in country.

It was launched from a TEL from a new base of the IRGC at Mushhad. The
Shahab-3 used a inertial guidance system with a CEP Circular error
probability of 3 km."

[Someone commented -
that with that kind of accuracy -
the safest place to be standing
is the target area.]
-----------

May 31, 2005 ( New York Times )
In what constitutes a major development for its missile program, Iran has
reported success in its test of a solid-fueled ballistic missile engine
which is probably designed for a newer version of the Shahab missile family.
The range of the solid fuel motor is purported to exceed the stated 2,000 km
range of the existing, but gradually upgraded, Shahab-3. Such a reach could
give Iran the capability to target all of Israel, Turkey, much of India,
parts of Germany and China, and U.S. forces stationed in Iraq, Afghanistan,
and the Persian Gulf. According to Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani,
the test was “100 percent successful.”

If the Iranian claims are accurate, the test represents a
significant breakthrough for Iranian missile technology. Solid fuel offers
abundant advantages over liquid fuel. It provides its missiles with greater
accuracy, faster mobility, quicker deployment, and a longer shelf life. Iran
seems likely to arm these missiles with nuclear warheads. Al-Jazeera quoted
one Western diplomat as noting, “Why develop a Rolls Royce to only deliver a
pizza?”

--------
Apr 28, 2006
Major General Amos Yadlin, the head of Israeli military intelligence, ...
confirmed that the Iranians had received 18 BM15 missiles, which could put
countries including the Czech Republic, Italy and Romania within range.
(Times Online)

-------
This same info
comes from many different sources -
but they may all have
the same initial source.

The primary sources have been:
Israeli Intelligence reports
Jane's
German Intelligence reports
and announcements
by the Iranians themselves.

--------
The apparent pattern is
that Iran has been receiving
through North Korea
old Russian designs
which it has been enhancing
with its own engineering
and which it has then been
mass producing itself.

The great breakthrough for Iran
will have been if it has actually developed
solid fuel missiles.

It takes a considerable amount of time
to ready liquid fuel missiles.
The facilities are difficult
to move about -
and are exposed while fuelling.
The rockets themselves
are generally neither as reliable
or accurate
as solid fuel rockets.

Iran brags that it now has
mobile solid fuel rockets
that can reach Israel.
How true - and how many -
remains questionable.

These may be capable of lifting
a nuclear payload -
but Iran has not tested them
with a nuclear weapon
(if it has one)
and so cannot know that they would work.
However,
new dramatic weapons are often used
for the first time -
in an act of war.

---------
A central key remains
the ability of Iran
to protect its launch sites -
and that is where the Tor-M1 comes in.

I feel certain
that I don't know the reality
of this situation -
and that it is quite possible
that the US and Israel
have other astounding weapons
of which we know nothing about.

That thought undoubtedly worries
the Iranians and Russians as well,
and is a key factor in deciding
when action should take place.
The question is -
whether to wait until
one can build up more forces
of their own -
or to strike before the other side
deploys more powerful forces and defenses.
Both sides face
this same issue.

----------
To repeat:

U.S. President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister- Ehud Olmert will
meet in Washington on May 23rd.

On a high profile basis
Israel has been appointing
non-military people to
civilian military oversight.
Even the new Defense Minister.

While they make few public announcements
of their views -
we can be very sure that they are ALL
well aware of the situation -
and united in their concern
about the threat to Israel -
and the need for its protection.

Israel's new Minister of Defense Vice Premier Shimon Peres said today
(Monday, May 8th) that ... Iran could also be destroyed.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/713641.html

While the high profile appointments
have been non-military personnel
I have noted over the last several days
one time announcements of appointments
to very key positions in the Israeli military
of people with exceptional qualifications.
I did not keep track of their names -
because at the time
I didn't realize such announcements
would be made only once and briefly -
and that I wouldn't be able
to locate them again.

Qualifications -
rather than previous rank -
appear to have been the criteria -
and those with exalted positions
appear to be willingly sacrificing themselves
to the shuffles.
I think it is an indication
that everyone is quietly
getting onto the same page.
Sacrifice of self - for the cause.

This is not simply
shuffling of the deck chairs.
This is putting the best gunners
into the gunner's seats.

Sorry that I can't document it further.
Missed the opportunity.

---------
A change of subject.

People often ask me
if there is anything like Ark Two
in the US.
Unfortunately, no.
However, many people
have expressed an interest in starting
a survival community.

There is one
that does seem to becoming together
in Montana.

Takes money -
(I don't think there is a fee for joining -
but you have to buy land nearby)
means moving -
and being able to be self supporting there.
The advantage is -
there are already several persons there,
and more planning to move there.

In my paradigm -
there may not be time to do this.
Unless you are thinking / planning / working on
doing something right now -
don't respond to this idea -
until you are ready to move.
If you are thinking - in a year -
well, just think for a year.

You can talk to Martin yourself -
and he can explain it himself -
but please don't write him
unless you are serious.
There are just too many -
who are just talkers and wishers.

His address is:
martin@lata.net
You will have to check it out yourself.
I of course get nothing out of this -
and know only what I have learned
through email.

----------
Here is another same sort of thing.
Just trying to help out -
I have asked Shane to give anyone
that writes in and asks for
the Bruce Beach special
to give what would be a usual dealer's discount,
of 25% off.

Don't write to me -
write to Shane -
because you get the discount -
not me.
But just ask for the
"Bruce Beach Special".
This applies to anything that he has.
KI
Rad Meters
you name it.
Go look at:
www.ki4u.com
and
www.radmeters4u.com
for examples.

I consider this just a last ditch effort
to try to get as many people supplied
as I can.
In my paradigm there isn't time
to get, make money, collect it,
and spend it -
if I were so inclined.

So please find your seat.
The show is about to begin.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org